China’s Africa strategy is shifting from extraction to investment – driven from the industry-rich Hunan region

中国的非洲战略正从资源开采转向投资——来自产业高地湖南省的推动

China experienced a massive economic boom in the 1990s and 2000s which increased its demand for resource imports, like oil, from Africa. This led to a model of development finance in which China funded infrastructure in African countries in return for access to resources. This approach became known as the Angola model, because it all started with an infrastructure-for-petroleum partnership between China and Angola in 2004.

中国在上个世纪90年代和21世纪前十年经济迅猛增长，对非洲石油等资源的进口需求也随之增加。开发性金融模式应运而生，即中国资助非洲国家进行基础设施建设，并以此换取资源的模式。这一模式也被称为“安哥拉模式”，因为这一模式始于2004年中国与安哥拉的“石油换基础设施”的合作。

Within a decade, however, a shift in China's approach was needed, for a couple of reasons.

然而，十年后，中国需要改变对非政策，原因如下。

First, African countries are vulnerable to shocks and they struggle to keep up with mounting debt repayments. For instance, in Angola's case, the price of oil fell from a high of US$115 to below US$50 in mid-2014. More recently, the impact of COVID's economic shutdowns and supply shocks around the war on Ukraine are taking a toll.

首先，非洲国家易受冲击，难以应对不断增加的债务偿还压力。以安哥拉为例，石油价格从最高时的115美元降至2014年中期的50美元以下。前几年的新冠疫情导致的经济停摆以及乌克兰冲突带来的供应冲击均给安哥拉的经济带来巨大冲击。

Second, China's domestic needs are changing. In recent years, climate change and changing diets have put pressure on China's domestic supply of food. This triggered interest in partnerships that could help. China is also moving away from being an exporter of heavy-industry and energy-intensive manufactured goods. Its focus is more on growth areas, such as higher value-added agriculture and manufacturing. Geopolitically, it also wants to support African development and its own food security.

其次，中国的国内需求正在改变。近年来，气候变化和饮食结构变化对中国的粮食供应带来了压力。这促使中国寻求合作伙伴来减缓压力。同时中国正逐渐从重工业和能源密集型制造业转向更注重高附加值的农业和制造业等增长领域。在地缘政治上，中国也希望支持非洲发展并确保自身粮食安全。

My study of these shifts reveals a changing relationship between China and Africa, moving beyond a focus on mainly oil and extractive commodities. The new focus is more on industrial production, job creation, investments that lead to African exports, and productivity-enhancing agricultural and digital technology opportunities.

作者的研究表明，中非关系正在发生变化，不再仅仅关注石油等开采类商品，而是把新的关注更多地放在工业生产、创造就业机会、带动非洲出口的投资，以及提高农业产能和数字技术等机会上。

This model, called the "Hunan model", is named after the province in southern China that is leading the push. African bureaucrats, researchers, trade associations and businesses should understand what's happening in Hunan. It'll help them to grasp new opportunities and ensure that African companies are competitively placed.

这种模式可以称为“湖南模式”，因为中国的这个南部省份正引领着中非关系的转变。非洲的政府官员、专家学者、商协会和企业应更多了解湖南的各种举措，这可以帮助他们抓住新机遇，确保非洲企业占据有竞争力的位置。

The Changsha International Convention and Exhibition Center in Hunan. Chen Yehua/Xinhua via Getty Images

湖南长沙国际会展中心。Chen Yehua/新华社 via Getty Images

What is the 'Hunan model'?

The Hunan model aims to support the 2035 Vision for China-Africa Cooperation by pushing for:

· medical cooperation

· poverty reduction and agricultural development

· trade

· investment

· digital innovation

· green development

· capacity building

· cultural and people-to-people exchange

· peace and security

什么是“湖南模式”？

湖南模式旨在通过推动以下领域来支持《中非合作2035年愿景》：

· 医疗合作

· 减贫与农业发展

· 贸易

· 投资

· 数字创新

· 绿色发展

· 能力建设

· 文化和人文交流

· 和平与安全

The delivery of those goals happens under the umbrella of the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo and a pilot zone for in-depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation. Both are centred on Changsha, the capital of Hunan province

这些目标在中非经贸博览会和中非经贸深度合作先行区的框架下正在稳步实现。这两大国家级平台落户于湖南的省会长沙。

Hunan province was chosen as the new frontier of China-Africa relations partly because many of China's competitive industries are based there. They include major agri-tech companies, a leading Chinese electronic vehicle company (BYD Changsha), and manufacturing equipment and construction industry companies. Many of these companies have a presence in, and long-run strategy for, African markets.

湖南省被中国赋予开辟中非关系的新前沿这一使命，其中一部分原因是湖南汇集了许多中国有竞争力的产业。其中包括重要的农业科技公司、领先的中国电动汽车企业（比亚迪长沙），以及制造装备和建筑公司。而且其中许多公司已在非洲市场有一席之地，并制定了长远的发展战略。

China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo

The China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo has many activities and events hosted in big exhibition centres. This allows new business partnerships to be forged with speed and logistical ease. At a 2023 event with 10,000 Chinese and 1,700 foreign participants, it was reported that 120 projects, worth a total of US$10.3 billion, were signed. All 53 African countries with which China has diplomatic relations were present.

中非经贸博览会

中非经贸博览会在长沙国际会展中心举办了众多活动。这为迅速建立新的商业伙伴关系并实现物流畅通提供了有利条件。2023年的第三届中非经贸博览会接待了超过1万名内宾和1700多名外宾。据报道，博览会期间共签署了120个项目，金额103亿美元。所有与中国建交的53个非洲国家均有代表出席。

Pilot zone

The pilot zone for in-depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation is a huge area that's been developed with the aim of expanding bilateral trade, dealing with bottlenecks in trade and cooperation and improving logistics between the two regions. Examples of typical bottlenecks include market access, finance, logistics, talent and services such as marketing and law.

Some of the initiatives that can be found in the pilot zone include vocational and education training and a digital services hub that supports Chinese companies in the efforts to economically engage Africa. The zone includes a permanent exhibition platform and a demonstration park.

先行区

中非经贸深度合作先行区涵盖广阔的区域。先行区旨在扩展双边贸易，解决贸易与合作中的痛点问题，改善中非间的物流。目前主要的瓶颈主要体现在市场准入、金融、物流、以及诸如营销和法律方面的专业人才和服务。

先行区内实施了一些试点项目，包括职业教育培训和跨境电商平台，旨在支持中国企业对非的经济合作。此外，先行区内还设有中非经贸博览会常设展馆和中非经贸合作促进创新示范园。

Some implications of the shift

The Hunan model's specific focus is on agriculture, heavy industry equipment, and transport such as electric automobiles and trains. These are areas where Hunan is a leader within China. And they are growth industries in many countries in Africa.

湖南模式的影响

湖南模式重点关注农业、制造业装备和轨道交通领域，如电动汽车和机车。这些都是湖南在中国处于领先地位的产业，同时，也是非洲许多国家的增长产业。

For China it may lead to new sources of food security as well as new markets for technology products and opportunities to set technology standards. The approach thus places Africa in an important position for grasping new opportunities and shaping related areas of cooperation - at home, with China and globally.

对于中国来说，这可能为粮食安全带来新的保障来源，同时也为科技产品开辟了新市场，以及设定技术标准的机会。湖南模式给非洲带来了发展机遇，改造相关领域合作，无论是大陆内部的合作，与中国的合作还是与全球的合作。

The Hunan model also seeks to support more efficient trade. New trade passageways by rail, river, air and ocean are being forged to better connect Hunan with African countries, especially trade hubs.

湖南模式还致力于支持更高效的贸易。通过铁路、河运、航空和海运，湖南正在打造新的贸易通道，以更好地实现湖南与非洲国家，尤其是非洲的贸易中心的互联互通。

There are also efforts to tackle issues of access to foreign exchange and foster greater use of local currencies. At the moment a lot of international trade is done in the US dollar, because it is widely accepted across all countries. But many developing countries struggle to accumulate dollars if they don't have a commodity like oil or gas to export. Small and medium-sized (SME) traders struggle in particular, and are less able to bear any currency risks against the value of their own local currency. The zone in Hunan includes a centre that is testing trade payment systems based on other currencies. This could become a broader model for SME-based trade in local currencies.

此外，湖南模式也在努力解决外汇的痛点问题，促进更多地使用本币。目前，很多国际贸易都使用美元交易，因为美元在各个国家都被广泛接受。但是，许多发展中国家如果没有像石油或天然气这样的商品出口，就难以储备美元。中小型贸易商尤其更加困难，而且它们也很难承受货币汇率风险。先行区内正在测试基于本币的贸易支付系统。这一模式可能在利用本币进行贸易的中小企业间推广。

Ultimately, China's Hunan agenda will mean different things for different African countries and will evolve over time. It's a recent shift, since 2018 especially, but beyond its potential to elevate food security and production capacity in China and African countries, there will be other important implications. It may facilitate digital and communications logistics for trade between China and Africa, as well as research on technology, industry and trade standards, and trade flows and trends.

总之，中国湖南的对非议程对不同的非洲国家会产生不同程度的影响，并会随着时间的推移而进一步完善。虽然湖南模式是一个新现象，主要是从2018年以后才开始显现，但除了提升中国和非洲国家粮食安全和产能建设，湖南模式还可能产生其他方面的积极影响。未来湖南模式可能会促进中非贸易的数字和通信物流技术，技术、产业和贸易标准的研究，以及对贸易流量和趋势的研究。

作者简介：

Dr Lauren Johnston holds a PhD in Economics from Peking University. She has expertise in and is widely published on the economics and political economy of China-Africa relations, the Belt and Road Initiative and how population ageing impacts China’s economy. Dr Johnston is concurrently an Associate Professor at the China Studies Centre, University of Sydney. She previously worked at the University of Melbourne, Beijing Foreign Studies University, the World Bank, and as an ODI Fellow in the Ministry of Development and Economic Planning of Sierra Leone.

江诗伦（Lauren Johnston）博士拥有北京大学经济学博士学位。她在中非关系经济学和政治经济学、“一带一路”倡议以及人口老龄化对中国经济的影响等方面具有专长，并发表了大量论文。江诗伦兼任悉尼大学中国研究中心副教授。她曾在墨尔本大学、北京外国语大学、世界银行工作，并在塞拉利昂发展和经济规划部担任过对外直接投资研究员。